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América vs Toluca

América vs Toluca 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 15)

Fair result

América

2–2

Toluca

2.2Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances América would usually take 1.6 points and Toluca 1.2; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: América.

América −0.6 pts vs chancesToluca −0.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

América vs Toluca stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Toluca had clearly more shots on target

América

Toluca

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

53%

Possession

47%

The match between América and Toluca ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a América win at 40% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Toluca – Monterrey prediction & betting tips (Nov 8, 2026).

América vs Toluca — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

América to win

Wrong

Our model 40%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 5,759 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,185 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 70%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 4,604 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.1% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 40%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 6,696 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

América Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

América 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: América 2+ goals.

Our model 60%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,030 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.9% than to our 55–60%.

Toluca Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Toluca 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 64%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,679 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

América vs Toluca 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for América vs Toluca. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga MX - Mexico

América2

Toluca2

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

· FT

Liga MX - Mexico

América2

Toluca2

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

140%

X26%

234%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%	60%	40%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	60%	40%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	73%	59%	41%	83%	17%	94%	6%
	31%	69%	64%	36%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	73%	59%	41%
	31%	69%	64%	36%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	94%	6%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

134%

X40%

226%

1st Score

153%

X7%

241%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

2-2

18%

X-1

14%

X-X

14%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.9%

1-0

9.4%

2-1

8.9%

1-2

8.1%

0-1

8.0%

0-0

6.8%

2-0

6.3%

2-2

5.6%

0-2

5.1%

3-1

3.8%

1-3

3.4%

3-0

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

América vs Toluca — Recent Form

América have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Toluca have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table.

Last 5 matches

América

Toluca

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Toluca

1/5

América

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Toluca

4/5

América

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Toluca

2/5

América

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Toluca

2/5

América

3/5

First Half Result

Toluca

1/5

América

1/5

Correct Score

Toluca

1/5

América

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Toluca – Monterrey prediction & betting tips (Nov 8, 2026).