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Santos Laguna vs Necaxa 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2025/2026 (Round 1)

Fair result
Santos LagunaSantos Laguna

1–3

NecaxaNecaxa
1.5Chances (xG)2.2

On these chances Santos Laguna would usually take 1.0 points and Necaxa 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Necaxa.

Santos Laguna −1.0 pts vs chancesNecaxa +1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Santos Laguna vs Necaxa stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Necaxa had clearly more shots on target

Santos Laguna

Necaxa

4

Shots on target

6

2

Big chances

3

7

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

1

1

Red cards

0

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Santos Laguna and Necaxa ended 1-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Necaxa win with 42% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Necaxa – Atlas prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

Santos Laguna vs Necaxa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Necaxa to win

Correct
Our model 42%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,579 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.8% of the time (bookmakers said 46.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,439 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 3,055 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 911 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.3% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 6,624 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Santos Laguna Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Santos Laguna 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,426 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Necaxa Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Necaxa 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Necaxa 2+ goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 830 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.7% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Santos Laguna vs Necaxa 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Santos Laguna vs Necaxa. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga MX - Mexico
Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1
NecaxaNecaxa3

Winner

X2 65%

BTTS*

Yes 64%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 52%

Full Time

135%
X23%
242%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT16%84%36%64%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT48%52%74%26%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Santos Laguna28%72%58%42%
Necaxa24%76%52%48%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Santos Laguna81%19%92%8%
Necaxa76%24%90%10%

1st Half

126%
X43%
231%

1st Score

144%
X4%
252%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

24%

1-1

18%

X-2

17%

X-X

15%

X-1

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

9.8%

1-2

8.5%

2-1

7.7%

2-2

7.2%

0-1

6.4%

1-0

6.0%

0-2

5.2%

1-3

5.0%

2-0

4.2%

3-1

4.0%

0-0

4.0%

2-3

4.0%

0-3

3.4%

3-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Necaxa – Atlas prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

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