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Puebla vs Necaxa 0-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2025/2026 (Round 11)

Robbed

Puebla drew despite more chances

PueblaPuebla

0–0

NecaxaNecaxa
1.7Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Puebla would usually take 2.2 points and Necaxa 0.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Puebla.

Puebla −1.2 pts vs chancesNecaxa +0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Puebla vs Necaxa stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Puebla had more than twice the shots on target

Puebla

Necaxa

3

Shots on target

1

1

Big chances

0

6

Corners

5

4

Yellow cards

2

0

Red cards

1

61%

Possession

39%

The match between Puebla and Necaxa ended 0-0. Our AI model predicted an Necaxa win at 41% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlas – Puebla prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Puebla vs Necaxa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Necaxa to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Puebla to win.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 30%

Our track record

In 1,070 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,748 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,363 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,413 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 38%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,010 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Puebla Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Puebla 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Puebla 2+ goals.

Our model 61%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 389 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.9% than to our 60–65%.

Necaxa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Necaxa 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 1,594 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Puebla vs Necaxa 0-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Puebla vs Necaxa. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga MX - Mexico
PueblaPuebla0
NecaxaNecaxa0

Winner

X2 65%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 54%

Full Time

135%
X24%
241%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%81%41%59%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT54%46%78%22%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Puebla30%70%61%39%
Necaxa25%75%55%45%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Puebla83%17%94%6%
Necaxa79%21%92%8%

1st Half

129%
X38%
233%

1st Score

144%
X5%
251%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

24%

1-1

20%

X-2

14%

X-X

13%

X-1

12%

1-X

6%

2-X

6%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.8%

1-2

9.0%

2-1

8.1%

0-1

7.5%

1-0

6.9%

2-2

6.3%

0-2

5.9%

2-0

5.0%

0-0

4.8%

1-3

4.5%

3-1

3.8%

0-3

3.4%

2-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlas – Puebla prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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