2. Leagues
  3. Liga MX
  4. Juárez vs Pumas UNAM

Juárez vs Pumas UNAM 1-5 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
JuárezJuárez

1–5

Pumas UNAMPumas UNAM
0.8Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Juárez would usually take 0.8 points and Pumas UNAM 2.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Pumas UNAM.

Juárez −0.8 pts vs chancesPumas UNAM +1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Juárez vs Pumas UNAM stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Pumas UNAM had clearly more shots on target

Juárez

Pumas UNAM

3

Shots on target

5

0

Big chances

3

2

Corners

0

2

Yellow cards

1

48%

Possession

52%

The match between Juárez and Pumas UNAM ended 1-5. Our AI model predicted a Juárez win at 39% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Both Teams To Score — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético San Luis – Juárez prediction & betting tips (Nov 7, 2026).

Juárez vs Pumas UNAM — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Juárez to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Pumas UNAM to win.

Our model 39%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 1,496 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.6% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,873 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 73%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 4,576 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 42%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,647 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.2% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

Juárez Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Juárez 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,440 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Pumas UNAM Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Pumas UNAM 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Juárez vs Pumas UNAM 1-5 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Juárez vs Pumas UNAM. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga MX - Mexico
JuárezJuárez1
Pumas UNAMPumas UNAM5

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

139%
X26%
235%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%52%48%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT63%37%85%15%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Juárez31%69%63%37%
Pumas UNAM32%68%66%34%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Juárez85%15%95%5%
Pumas UNAM87%13%96%4%

1st Half

135%
X42%
223%

1st Score

152%
X8%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-X

16%

X-1

15%

2-2

15%

X-2

11%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

11.9%

0-1

9.7%

1-0

9.6%

2-1

8.3%

0-0

8.2%

1-2

7.7%

2-0

6.2%

0-2

6.1%

2-2

5.1%

3-1

3.8%

1-3

3.1%

3-0

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético San Luis – Juárez prediction & betting tips (Nov 7, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores