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Atlas vs Tigres UANL 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)

Smash-and-grab

Atlas won with less than half the chances

AtlasAtlas

2–1

Tigres UANLTigres UANL
0.7Chances (xG)2.5

On these chances Atlas would usually take 0.4 points and Tigres UANL 2.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Tigres UANL.

Atlas +2.6 pts vs chancesTigres UANL −2.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Atlas vs Tigres UANL stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Tigres UANL had more than twice the shots on target

Atlas

Tigres UANL

3

Shots on target

8

1

Big chances

3

2

Corners

16

2

Yellow cards

1

1

Red cards

0

47%

Possession

53%

The match between Atlas and Tigres UANL ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an Tigres UANL win at 42% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Pumas UNAM – Tigres UANL prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Atlas vs Tigres UANL — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigres UANL to win

Wrong
Our model 42%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 3,597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,153 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 4,552 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 45%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Atlas Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlas 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,672 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Tigres UANL Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigres UANL 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Atlas vs Tigres UANL 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlas vs Tigres UANL. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga MX - Mexico
AtlasAtlas2
Tigres UANLTigres UANL1

Winner

X2 69%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

131%
X27%
242%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT28%72%53%47%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT64%36%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Atlas36%64%69%31%
Tigres UANL27%73%61%39%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Atlas89%11%97%3%
Tigres UANL84%16%94%6%

1st Half

121%
X45%
234%

1st Score

138%
X8%
254%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

27%

X-X

17%

X-2

17%

1-1

13%

X-1

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.2%

0-1

10.9%

1-0

8.8%

1-2

8.6%

0-0

8.2%

0-2

7.4%

2-1

7.2%

2-0

5.3%

2-2

5.2%

1-3

3.8%

0-3

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Pumas UNAM – Tigres UANL prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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