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Puebla vs Toluca 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Fair result
PueblaPuebla

0–1

TolucaToluca
1.0Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Puebla would usually take 1.1 points and Toluca 1.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Toluca.

Puebla −1.1 pts vs chancesToluca +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Puebla vs Toluca stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Toluca had clearly more shots on target

Puebla

Toluca

2

Shots on target

3

0

Big chances

4

6

Corners

5

1

Yellow cards

1

44%

Possession

56%

The match between Puebla and Toluca ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an Toluca win with 55% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: León – Toluca prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Puebla vs Toluca — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Toluca to win

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 1,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,117 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 4,552 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Toluca ahead at half-time.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,228 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Puebla Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Puebla 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 832 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 73.8% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Toluca Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Toluca 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,013 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Puebla vs Toluca 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Puebla vs Toluca. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga MX - Mexico
PueblaPuebla0
TolucaToluca1

Winner

2 55%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

0-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

120%
X25%
255%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Puebla45%55%78%22%
Toluca20%80%50%50%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Puebla94%6%98%2%
Toluca75%25%90%10%

1st Half

118%
X44%
239%

1st Score

131%
X8%
261%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

34%

X-2

21%

X-X

15%

1-1

9%

X-1

7%

1-X

4%

1-2

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-1

11.9%

1-1

11.0%

0-2

10.1%

1-2

9.6%

0-0

8.0%

1-0

6.8%

0-3

5.9%

1-3

5.3%

2-1

4.9%

2-2

4.6%

2-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: León – Toluca prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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