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Tigres UANL vs Puebla

Tigres UANL vs Puebla 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)

Fair result

Tigres UANL

1–0

Puebla

2.0Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Tigres UANL would usually take 2.2 points and Puebla 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Tigres UANL.

Tigres UANL +0.8 pts vs chancesPuebla −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Tigres UANL vs Puebla stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Tigres UANL had more than twice the shots on target

Tigres UANL

Puebla

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

59%

Possession

42%

The match between Tigres UANL and Puebla ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Tigres UANL win with 67% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Tigres UANL – León prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

Tigres UANL vs Puebla — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigres UANL to win

Correct

Our model 67%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.5% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigres UANL ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 47%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Tigres UANL Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Puebla Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Puebla 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 85%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Tigres UANL vs Puebla 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Tigres UANL vs Puebla. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga MX - Mexico

Tigres UANL1

Puebla0

Winner

1 67%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

· FT

Liga MX - Mexico

Tigres UANL1

Puebla0

Winner

1 67%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

167%

X21%

213%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	25%	75%	47%	53%	59%	41%	80%	20%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	25%	75%	47%	53%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	59%	41%	80%	20%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	14%	86%	41%	59%	67%	33%	85%	15%
	55%	45%	84%	16%	96%	4%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	14%	86%	41%	59%
	55%	45%	84%	16%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	67%	33%	85%	15%
	96%	4%	99%	1%

1st Half

147%

X38%

215%

1st Score

167%

X7%

226%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

43%

X-1

21%

X-X

11%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-1

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

13.1%

2-0

11.9%

2-1

9.6%

1-1

9.2%

3-0

8.0%

0-0

7.1%

3-1

6.3%

0-1

4.4%

2-2

3.6%

1-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Tigres UANL vs Puebla — Recent Form

Tigres UANL have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 13th in the table. Puebla have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 11th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Tigres UANL

Puebla

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Tigres UANL

2/5

Puebla

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Tigres UANL

3/5

Puebla

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Tigres UANL

1/5

Puebla

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Tigres UANL

4/5

Puebla

5/5

First Half Result

Tigres UANL

2/5

Puebla

2/5

Correct Score

Tigres UANL

2/5

Puebla

4/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Tigres UANL – León prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).