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Famalicão vs Estoril 4-0 Score & Prediction Review
Liga Portugal - Season 2025/2026 (Round 14)
Famalicão4–0
EstorilOn these chances Famalicão would usually take 2.4 points and Estoril 0.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Famalicão.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Famalicão vs Estoril stats: how the match was played
Liga Portugal
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Famalicão had more than twice the shots on target
Famalicão
Estoril
12
Shots on target
4
9
Big chances
1
4
Corners
9
3
Yellow cards
1
55%
Possession
45%
Famalicão vs Estoril — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Portugal
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Famalicão to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Famalicão ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,228 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Famalicão 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Famalicão 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 387 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.8% than to our 60–65%.
Our model’s pick
Estoril 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,271 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Famalicão vs Estoril 4-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Famalicão vs Estoril. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Famalicão4
Estoril0Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 65%
Famalicão4Estoril0Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 65%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 28% | 72% | 53% | 47% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 65% | 35% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27% | 73% | 62% | 38% |
| 34% | 66% | 68% | 32% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
2-2
19%
X-X
16%
X-1
13%
X-2
13%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.6%
1-0
11.2%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.7%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
5.2%
0-2
5.1%
3-1
3.8%
3-0
3.3%
1-3
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score