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Sporting CP vs Nacional

Sporting CP vs Nacional 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Portugal - Season 2025/2026 (Round 20)

Fair result

Sporting CP

2–1

Nacional

1.8Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Sporting CP would usually take 2.1 points and Nacional 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Sporting CP.

Sporting CP +0.9 pts vs chancesNacional −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Sporting CP vs Nacional stats: how the match was played

Liga Portugal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Sporting CP had clearly more shots on target

Sporting CP

Nacional

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

61%

Possession

39%

The match between Sporting CP and Nacional ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Sporting CP win with 75% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Sporting CP vs Nacional — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sporting CP to win

Correct

Our model 75%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 324 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 2,438 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 5,123 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 70%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 51.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.1% than to our 65–70%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sporting CP ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,227 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.3% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Sporting CP Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sporting CP 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 3,423 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Nacional Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nacional 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 90%Bookmakers 87%

Our track record

In 131 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 90–95% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 87.8% of the time (bookmakers said 88.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Sporting CP vs Nacional 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sporting CP vs Nacional. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Portugal - Portugal

Sporting CP2

Nacional1

Winner

1 75%

BTTS*

No 60%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

· FT

Liga Portugal - Portugal

Sporting CP2

Nacional1

Winner

1 75%

BTTS*

No 60%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

175%

X17%

28%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	26%	74%	49%	51%	60%	40%	79%	21%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	26%	74%	49%	51%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	60%	40%	79%	21%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	12%	88%	37%	63%	64%	36%	82%	18%
	65%	35%	90%	10%	98%	2%	100%	0%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	12%	88%	37%	63%
	65%	35%	90%	10%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	64%	36%	82%	18%
	98%	2%	100%	0%

1st Half

153%

X35%

211%

1st Score

170%

X7%

222%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

50%

X-1

22%

X-X

2-2

X-2

2-1

1-X

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

14.8%

2-0

14.8%

3-0

10.2%

2-1

8.8%

1-1

7.3%

0-0

7.3%

3-1

6.0%

0-1

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score