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Casa Pia vs Porto

Casa Pia vs Porto 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Portugal - Season 2025/2026 (Round 20)

Smash-and-grab

Casa Pia won with less than half the chances

Casa Pia

2–1

Porto

0.6Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Casa Pia would usually take 0.7 points and Porto 2.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Porto.

Casa Pia +2.3 pts vs chancesPorto −2.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Casa Pia vs Porto stats: how the match was played

Liga Portugal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Porto had more than twice the shots on target

Casa Pia

Porto

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

32%

Possession

68%

The match between Casa Pia and Porto ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an Porto win at 70% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Casa Pia vs Porto — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Porto to win

Wrong

Our model 70%Bookmakers 76%

Our track record

In 602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.4% of the time (bookmakers said 71.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,615 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,124 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 75%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 4,518 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Porto ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 1,229 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.4% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Casa Pia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Casa Pia 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 90%Bookmakers 90%

Our track record

In 125 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 86.4% of the time (bookmakers said 84.8%).

Porto Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Porto 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,589 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Casa Pia vs Porto 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Casa Pia vs Porto. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Portugal - Portugal

Casa Pia2

Porto1

Winner

2 70%

BTTS*

No 59%

Correct Score

0-2 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

· FT

Liga Portugal - Portugal

Casa Pia2

Porto1

Winner

2 70%

BTTS*

No 59%

Correct Score

0-2 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

110%

X20%

270%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	28%	72%	54%	46%	65%	35%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	28%	72%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	65%	35%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	60%	40%	90%	10%	99%	1%	100%	0%
	15%	85%	42%	58%	70%	30%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	60%	40%	90%	10%
	15%	85%	42%	58%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	99%	1%	100%	0%
	70%	30%	87%	13%

1st Half

112%

X36%

251%

1st Score

120%

X8%

272%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

49%

X-2

20%

X-X

12%

1-1

1-X

1-2

X-1

2-X

2-1

Correct Score

0-2

15.0%

0-1

14.8%

1-2

9.5%

0-3

9.2%

1-1

9.1%

0-0

8.0%

1-3

5.8%

1-0

4.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score