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Estoril vs Casa Pia 0-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Portugal - Season 2025/2026 (Round 25)

Fair result
EstorilEstoril

0–0

Casa PiaCasa Pia
0.8Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Estoril would usually take 1.2 points and Casa Pia 1.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Estoril.

Estoril −0.2 pts vs chancesCasa Pia −0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Estoril vs Casa Pia stats: how the match was played

Liga Portugal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Casa Pia had more than twice the shots on target

Estoril

Casa Pia

1

Shots on target

2

1

Big chances

2

4

Corners

5

2

Yellow cards

2

65%

Possession

35%

The match between Estoril and Casa Pia ended 0-0. Our AI model predicted a Estoril win at 50% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Estrela Amadora – Casa Pia prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Estoril vs Casa Pia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Estoril to win

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.8% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,472 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,165 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 4,561 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Estoril ahead at half-time.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Estoril Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Estoril 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Estoril 2+ goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,858 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Casa Pia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Casa Pia 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,362 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Estoril vs Casa Pia 0-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Estoril vs Casa Pia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Portugal - Portugal
EstorilEstoril0
Casa PiaCasa Pia0

Winner

1 50%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

150%
X26%
224%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%49%51%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Estoril21%79%53%47%
Casa Pia40%61%73%27%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Estoril78%22%92%8%
Casa Pia91%9%98%2%

1st Half

137%
X42%
222%

1st Score

157%
X7%
236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

17%

X-X

16%

2-2

12%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.9%

1-0

11.1%

2-1

9.8%

2-0

8.7%

0-0

7.2%

0-1

7.1%

1-2

6.3%

2-2

5.2%

3-1

5.0%

3-0

4.7%

0-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Estrela Amadora – Casa Pia prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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