Arouca vs Estrela Amadora Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Liga Portugal - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)
Arouca vs Estrela Amadora — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Portugal
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Arouca to win
Our track record
In 1,940 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.5% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 6,060 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 4,884 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 4,364 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.7%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 3,851 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.4%).
Our model’s pick
Arouca 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 3,161 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.9% of the time (bookmakers said 64.2%).
Our model’s pick
Estrela Amadora 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 2,993 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.9%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Arouca vs Estrela Amadora — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Arouca vs Estrela Amadora. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Arouca–
Estrela Amadora–Winner
12 72%
BTTS**
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Arouca–Estrela Amadora–Winner
12 72%
BTTS**
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 26% | 74% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28% | 72% | 61% | 39% |
 | 32% | 68% | 66% | 34% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
20%
X-X
18%
2-2
18%
X-1
16%
X-2
12%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.9%
1-0
9.7%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.0%
0-0
7.8%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
5.8%
0-2
5.3%
3-1
3.8%
1-3
3.2%
3-0
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Arouca vs Estrela Amadora — Recent Form
Estrela Amadora have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Arouca have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Estrela AmadoraAroucaOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
AroucaEstrela AmadoraBoth Teams to Score
AroucaEstrela AmadoraOver/Under 2.5 Goals
AroucaEstrela AmadoraOver/Under 3.5 Goals
AroucaEstrela AmadoraFirst Half Result
AroucaEstrela AmadoraCorrect Score
AroucaEstrela Amadora