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Lille vs Brest 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2024/2025 (Round 14)

Fair result
LilleLille

3–1

BrestBrest
1.4Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Lille would usually take 1.8 points and Brest 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Lille.

Lille +1.2 pts vs chancesBrest −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lille vs Brest stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Lille had more than twice the shots on target

Lille

Brest

6

Shots on target

3

5

Big chances

1

2

Corners

1

1

Yellow cards

1

62%

Possession

38%

The match between Lille and Brest ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Lille win with 59% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Brest – Nice prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Lille vs Brest — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lille to win

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 1,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 72%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 4,552 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lille ahead at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 45%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,228 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Lille Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lille 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Brest Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Brest 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 80%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 2,571 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lille vs Brest 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lille vs Brest. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 1 - France
LilleLille3
BrestBrest1

Winner

1 59%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

159%
X23%
218%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%49%51%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Lille17%83%47%53%
Brest48%52%80%20%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Lille74%26%90%10%
Brest94%6%99%1%

1st Half

145%
X38%
217%

1st Score

161%
X7%
232%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

35%

X-1

18%

X-X

15%

2-2

10%

X-2

7%

1-X

6%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

12.8%

1-1

10.8%

2-0

10.8%

2-1

10.0%

3-0

7.1%

0-0

6.8%

0-1

5.6%

3-1

5.5%

1-2

4.8%

2-2

4.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Brest – Nice prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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