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  4. Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille

Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2025/2026 (Round 25)

Fair result
ToulouseToulouse

0–1

Olympique MarseilleOlympique Marseille
1.0Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Toulouse would usually take 1.2 points and Olympique Marseille 1.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Olympique Marseille.

Toulouse −1.2 pts vs chancesOlympique Marseille +1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Olympique Marseille had clearly more shots on target

Toulouse

Olympique Marseille

2

Shots on target

3

1

Big chances

3

4

Corners

2

2

Yellow cards

3

49%

Possession

51%

The match between Toulouse and Olympique Marseille ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an Olympique Marseille win with 39% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Le Mans – Toulouse prediction & betting tips (Oct 16, 2026).

Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olympique Marseille to win

Correct
Our model 39%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,082 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,615 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,257 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 3,921 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 39%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,012 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Toulouse Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Toulouse 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,426 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Olympique Marseille Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olympique Marseille 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Olympique Marseille 2+ goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 614 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 1 - France
ToulouseToulouse0
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Marseille1

Winner

12 75%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

136%
X25%
239%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT21%79%43%57%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT56%44%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Toulouse28%72%60%40%
Olympique Marseille27%73%58%42%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Toulouse83%17%94%6%
Olympique Marseille82%18%93%7%

1st Half

129%
X39%
231%

1st Score

146%
X5%
249%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

24%

1-1

20%

X-X

14%

X-2

13%

X-1

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

11.3%

1-2

8.7%

2-1

8.4%

0-1

7.8%

1-0

7.4%

2-2

6.3%

0-2

5.8%

0-0

5.5%

2-0

5.3%

1-3

4.2%

3-1

3.9%

2-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Le Mans – Toulouse prediction & betting tips (Oct 16, 2026).

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