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Troyes vs Lens

Troyes vs Lens 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Fair result

Troyes

1–3

Lens

1.4Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Troyes would usually take 1.6 points and Lens 1.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Lens.

Troyes −1.6 pts vs chancesLens +1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Troyes vs Lens stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Troyes had clearly more shots on target

Troyes

Lens

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

41%

Possession

59%

The match between Troyes and Lens ended 1-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Lens win with 43% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lens – Paris prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Troyes vs Lens — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lens to win

Correct

Our model 43%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,687 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 63%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 2,382 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 39%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 1,996 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Troyes Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Troyes 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Lens Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lens 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Lens 2+ goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 844 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Troyes vs Lens 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Troyes vs Lens. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Troyes1

Lens3

Winner

X2 69%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Troyes1

Lens3

Winner

X2 69%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

Full Time

131%

X25%

243%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	20%	80%	42%	58%	53%	47%	78%	22%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	20%	80%	42%	58%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	53%	47%	78%	22%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	32%	68%	63%	37%	85%	15%	95%	5%
	24%	76%	53%	47%	77%	23%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	32%	68%	63%	37%
	24%	76%	53%	47%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	85%	15%	95%	5%
	77%	23%	91%	9%

1st Half

130%

X39%

231%

1st Score

147%

X6%

248%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

23%

1-1

20%

X-X

15%

X-2

13%

X-1

11%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

10.8%

1-2

8.7%

0-1

7.8%

2-1

7.2%

1-0

6.5%

2-2

6.5%

0-2

6.3%

0-0

5.7%

1-3

4.9%

2-0

4.5%

3-1

3.4%

2-3

3.4%

0-3

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Troyes vs Lens — Recent Form

Lens have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. Troyes have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 17th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Lens

Troyes

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Lens

3/5

Troyes

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Lens

4/5

Troyes

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Lens

3/5

Troyes

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Lens

3/5

Troyes

3/5

First Half Result

Lens

1/5

Troyes

1/5

Correct Score

Lens

0/5

Troyes

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lens – Paris prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).