Leaky
0/10San Diego kept no clean sheet in their last 10 (league 21%).
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St. Louis City vs San Diego Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Major League Soccer - Season 2026
Unlucky
San Diego are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−8points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: San Diego 27% to winSt. Louis City 52%
St. Louis City vs San Diego score prediction
Major League Soccer
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.6 goals expected
3.6 goals in total: more goals than a typical Major League Soccer game (average 3.3).
goals expected
St. Louis City2.1San Diego1.5Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for St. Louis City vs San Diego: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
St. Louis City vs San Diego — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Major League Soccer
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
St. Louis City to win
Our model 48%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 3,512 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 64%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 2,489 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 3,093 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 59%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 950 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 59.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
St. Louis City ahead at half-time
Our model 40%Bookmakers 39%
Our track record
In 1,983 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.5% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
St. Louis City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
St. Louis City 2+ goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 2,807 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.5% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
San Diego Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
San Diego 0–1 goals
Our model 64%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 2,654 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
St. Louis City vs San Diego — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for St. Louis City vs San Diego. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
St. Louis City–
San Diego–Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
St. Louis City–San Diego–Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Full Time
148%
X24%
228%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 37% | 63% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 49% | 51% | 74% | 26% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19% | 81% | 47% | 53% |
| 33% | 67% | 64% | 36% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 28% | 88% | 12% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
140%
X37%
224%
1st Score
157%
X4%
238%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
31%
X-1
16%
2-2
14%
X-X
12%
X-2
8%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
4%
Correct Score
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.8%
1-2
7.4%
1-0
7.1%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
5.3%
0-0
4.4%
3-0
3.9%
3-2
3.9%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
3.0%
2-3
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
St. Louis City vs San Diego: the stats that stand out
Major League Soccer
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%San Diego: leaky and always chasing
0/10Always chasing
7/10San Diego conceded first in 7 of their last 10 (league 48%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →St. Louis City vs San Diego: attack vs defence
Major League Soccer
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Major League Soccer teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- St. Louis City: weak attack, weak defence (1.53 xG, 1.64 xGA a game)
- San Diego: good attack, weak defence (1.71 xG, 1.77 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →St. Louis City vs San Diego form and luck check
Major League Soccer
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Major League Soccer gamesSan Diego are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- St. Louis CityBookmakers: 52% to win today.Clinical · +8 goals+3.3
- San DiegoBookmakers: 27% to win today.−8.1
Last 5 matches
St. Louis CityL
L
L
D
W
San DiegoL
D
D
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: St. Louis City 9th of 30 · San Diego 18th of 30
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 30 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →St. Louis City vs San Diego: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Major League Soccer
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Major League Soccer gamesBTTS = both teams scoredSt. Louis City and San Diego games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Major League Soccer average (65%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 65%
St. Louis City9 of 10
San Diego9 of 10
BTTSleague 64%
St. Louis City7 of 10
San Diego8 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 500 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →St. Louis City vs San Diego corners, cards and goal times
Major League Soccer
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.0
- Cards: league 2.1
- Goals before half-time: league 45%
- Goals after 75': league 24%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
St. Louis City3/5
San Diego1/5
Both Teams to Score
St. Louis City3/5
San Diego5/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
St. Louis City3/5
San Diego5/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
St. Louis City2/5
San Diego0/5
First Half Result
St. Louis City2/5
San Diego2/5
Correct Score
St. Louis City0/5
San Diego0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction