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SJ Earthquakes vs Austin 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Major League Soccer - Season 2025

Fair result
SJ EarthquakesSJ Earthquakes

2–1

AustinAustin
2.8Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances SJ Earthquakes would usually take 2.6 points and Austin 0.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: SJ Earthquakes.

SJ Earthquakes +0.4 pts vs chancesAustin −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

SJ Earthquakes vs Austin stats: how the match was played

Major League Soccer

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

SJ Earthquakes had more than twice the shots on target

SJ Earthquakes

Austin

10

Shots on target

3

5

Big chances

1

15

Corners

1

0

Yellow cards

3

64%

Possession

36%

The match between SJ Earthquakes and Austin ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a SJ Earthquakes win with 46% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sporting KC – Austin prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

SJ Earthquakes vs Austin — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Major League Soccer

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

SJ Earthquakes to win

Correct
Our model 46%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,477 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 404 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.9% of the time (bookmakers said 65.3%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,079 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 936 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

SJ Earthquakes ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 39%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 2,001 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

SJ Earthquakes Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

SJ Earthquakes 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,796 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Austin Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Austin 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,651 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

SJ Earthquakes vs Austin 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for SJ Earthquakes vs Austin. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Major League Soccer - USA
SJ EarthquakesSJ Earthquakes2
AustinAustin1

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 65%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 52%

Full Time

146%
X23%
231%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT16%84%36%64%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT48%52%74%26%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
SJ Earthquakes20%80%48%52%
Austin31%69%61%39%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
SJ Earthquakes74%26%89%11%
Austin83%17%94%6%

1st Half

139%
X35%
226%

1st Score

156%
X4%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

2-2

15%

X-1

14%

X-X

13%

X-2

9%

1-X

6%

2-X

6%

2-1

5%

1-2

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.0%

2-1

9.2%

1-2

7.5%

1-0

6.9%

2-2

6.8%

2-0

6.3%

3-1

5.6%

0-1

5.3%

3-2

4.0%

0-2

3.9%

3-0

3.7%

0-0

3.6%

1-3

3.5%

2-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sporting KC – Austin prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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