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Austin vs Nashville SC 1-4 Score & Prediction Review
Major League Soccer - Season 2026
Austin1–4
Nashville SCOn these chances Austin would usually take 0.5 points and Nashville SC 2.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Nashville SC.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Austin vs Nashville SC stats: how the match was played
Major League Soccer
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Nashville SC had more than twice the shots on target
Austin
Nashville SC
5
Shots on target
11
2
Big chances
9
4
Corners
6
1
Yellow cards
2
43%
Possession
57%
Austin vs Nashville SC — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Major League Soccer
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Austin to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Nashville SC to win.
Our track record
In 1,534 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,860 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Nashville SC ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,245 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Austin 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.1% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Our model’s pick
Nashville SC 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Nashville SC 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 134 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 65–70%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Austin vs Nashville SC 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Austin vs Nashville SC. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Austin1
Nashville SC4Winner
12 72%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 65%
Austin1Nashville SC4Winner
12 72%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 65%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 29% | 71% | 54% | 46% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 65% | 35% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 70% | 65% | 35% |
| 33% | 67% | 66% | 34% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
20%
1-1
19%
X-X
17%
X-1
13%
X-2
13%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
13.1%
1-0
10.6%
0-1
9.6%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
5.4%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Austin vs Nashville SC — Recent Form
Nashville SC have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Austin have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Nashville SCAustinOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Nashville SCAustinBoth Teams to Score
Nashville SCAustinOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Nashville SCAustinOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Nashville SCAustinFirst Half Result
Nashville SCAustinCorrect Score
Nashville SCAustin