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Sochi vs Krasnodar 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2025/2026 (Round 21)

Fair result
SochiSochi

1–2

KrasnodarKrasnodar
0.5Chances (xG)3.8

On these chances Sochi would usually take 0.1 points and Krasnodar 2.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Krasnodar.

Sochi −0.1 pts vs chancesKrasnodar +0.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Sochi vs Krasnodar stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Krasnodar had more than twice the shots on target

Sochi

Krasnodar

2

Shots on target

12

1

Big chances

6

4

Corners

10

3

Yellow cards

3

34%

Possession

66%

The match between Sochi and Krasnodar ended 1-2. Our AI model correctly predicted an Krasnodar win with 54% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Krasnodar – Baltika prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Sochi vs Krasnodar — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Krasnodar to win

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,477 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 6,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,840 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 4,559 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Krasnodar ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 40%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,000 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Sochi Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sochi 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 84%

Our track record

In 835 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 73.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Krasnodar Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Krasnodar 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Krasnodar 2+ goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 845 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Sochi vs Krasnodar 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sochi vs Krasnodar. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - Russia
SochiSochi1
KrasnodarKrasnodar2

Winner

2 54%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

121%
X25%
254%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Sochi47%53%79%21%
Krasnodar21%79%53%47%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Sochi94%6%98%2%
Krasnodar78%22%91%9%

1st Half

121%
X39%
240%

1st Score

134%
X9%
258%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

35%

X-2

17%

X-X

14%

1-1

12%

X-1

8%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

13.3%

1-1

11.3%

0-2

10.5%

1-2

9.3%

0-0

8.6%

1-0

7.0%

0-3

5.6%

2-1

5.0%

1-3

4.8%

2-2

4.3%

2-0

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Krasnodar – Baltika prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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