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Aberdeen vs St. Mirren 0-3 Score & Prediction Review

Premiership - Season 2024/2025 (Round 24)

Smash-and-grab

St. Mirren won with less than half the chances

AberdeenAberdeen

0–3

St. MirrenSt. Mirren
1.8Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Aberdeen would usually take 2.2 points and St. Mirren 0.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Aberdeen.

Aberdeen −2.2 pts vs chancesSt. Mirren +2.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Aberdeen vs St. Mirren stats: how the match was played

Premiership

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Aberdeen had more than twice the shots on target

Aberdeen

St. Mirren

7

Shots on target

3

3

Big chances

2

6

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

5

74%

Possession

26%

The match between Aberdeen and St. Mirren ended 0-3. Our AI model predicted a Aberdeen win at 50% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: St. Mirren – Hibernian prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Aberdeen vs St. Mirren — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premiership

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aberdeen to win

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,746 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,211 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 3,999 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,726 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Aberdeen Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aberdeen 2+ goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Aberdeen 0–1 goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,879 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

St. Mirren Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

St. Mirren 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 71%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,398 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Aberdeen vs St. Mirren 0-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Aberdeen vs St. Mirren. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premiership - Scotland
AberdeenAberdeen0
St. MirrenSt. Mirren3

Winner

1 50%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

150%
X25%
225%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT22%78%45%55%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT57%43%81%19%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Aberdeen20%80%50%50%
St. Mirren38%62%71%29%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Aberdeen75%25%90%10%
St. Mirren90%10%97%3%

1st Half

138%
X41%
221%

1st Score

155%
X6%
239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

18%

X-X

15%

2-2

12%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.5%

1-0

9.8%

2-1

9.4%

2-0

8.2%

0-1

6.3%

1-2

6.2%

0-0

5.8%

2-2

5.7%

3-1

5.3%

3-0

4.9%

0-2

3.7%

3-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: St. Mirren – Hibernian prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

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