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Hearts vs Kilmarnock

Hearts vs Kilmarnock 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Premiership - Season 2024/2025 (Round 24)

Fair result

Hearts

3–2

Kilmarnock

1.2Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Hearts would usually take 1.1 points and Kilmarnock 1.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Hearts.

Hearts +1.9 pts vs chancesKilmarnock −1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Hearts vs Kilmarnock stats: how the match was played

Premiership

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Kilmarnock had more than twice the shots on target

Hearts

Kilmarnock

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

49%

Possession

51%

The match between Hearts and Kilmarnock ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Hearts win with 58% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Motherwell – Hearts prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Hearts vs Kilmarnock — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premiership

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hearts to win

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,140 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 69%Bookmakers 76%

Our track record

In 3,987 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hearts ahead at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Hearts Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hearts 2+ goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Hearts 0–1 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Kilmarnock Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Kilmarnock 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 76%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,601 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Hearts vs Kilmarnock 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Hearts vs Kilmarnock. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premiership - Scotland

Hearts3

Kilmarnock2

Winner

1 58%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

· FT

Premiership - Scotland

Hearts3

Kilmarnock2

Winner

1 58%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

158%

X22%

220%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%	59%	41%	81%	19%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	59%	41%	81%	19%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	17%	83%	46%	54%	72%	28%	89%	11%
	44%	56%	76%	24%	93%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	17%	83%	46%	54%
	44%	56%	76%	24%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	72%	28%	89%	11%
	93%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

144%

X41%

215%

1st Score

165%

X6%

229%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

38%

X-1

20%

X-X

13%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-1

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

10.8%

1-1

10.7%

2-1

10.4%

2-0

9.8%

3-0

6.6%

3-1

5.9%

0-0

5.7%

1-2

5.5%

0-1

5.5%

2-2

5.0%

3-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Motherwell – Hearts prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).