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Hearts vs Celtic 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Premiership - Season 2025/2026 (Round 23)

Fair result
HeartsHearts

2–2

CelticCeltic
1.7Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Hearts would usually take 1.9 points and Celtic 0.9; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Celtic.

Hearts −0.9 pts vs chancesCeltic +0.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Hearts vs Celtic stats: how the match was played

Premiership

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Hearts had more than twice the shots on target

Hearts

Celtic

6

Shots on target

3

4

Big chances

2

2

Corners

2

3

Yellow cards

6

0

Red cards

1

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Hearts and Celtic ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Hearts win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Hibernian – Celtic prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Hearts vs Celtic — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premiership

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hearts to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Celtic to win.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 30%

Our track record

In 1,057 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,696 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,307 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 3,958 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 39%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,002 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Hearts Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hearts 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,798 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Celtic Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Celtic 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Hearts vs Celtic 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Hearts vs Celtic. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premiership - Scotland
HeartsHearts2
CelticCeltic2

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

144%
X25%
232%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT21%79%44%56%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT56%44%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Hearts24%76%55%45%
Celtic32%68%64%36%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Hearts79%21%92%8%
Celtic86%14%95%5%

1st Half

134%
X39%
226%

1st Score

153%
X6%
241%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

2-2

19%

X-X

16%

X-1

13%

X-2

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.3%

2-1

9.1%

1-0

8.8%

1-2

7.3%

0-1

6.9%

2-0

6.5%

2-2

6.1%

0-0

5.5%

3-1

4.8%

0-2

4.8%

1-3

3.5%

3-0

3.5%

3-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Hibernian – Celtic prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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