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Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

Premiership - Season 2025/2026 (Round 24)

Fair result
KilmarnockKilmarnock

3–0

AberdeenAberdeen
2.4Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Kilmarnock would usually take 2.1 points and Aberdeen 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Aberdeen.

Kilmarnock +0.9 pts vs chancesAberdeen −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen stats: how the match was played

Premiership

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Kilmarnock had more than twice the shots on target

Kilmarnock

Aberdeen

9

Shots on target

4

4

Big chances

3

7

Corners

3

3

Yellow cards

3

0

Red cards

1

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Kilmarnock and Aberdeen ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Kilmarnock win with 42% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Aberdeen – Falkirk prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premiership

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Kilmarnock to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Aberdeen to win.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 30%

Our track record

In 1,069 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,526 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,208 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 4,594 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,717 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Kilmarnock Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Kilmarnock 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Aberdeen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aberdeen 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,317 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premiership - Scotland
KilmarnockKilmarnock3
AberdeenAberdeen0

Winner

1X 67%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

142%
X25%
233%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%50%50%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT61%39%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Kilmarnock27%73%60%40%
Aberdeen34%66%67%33%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Kilmarnock83%17%94%6%
Aberdeen87%13%96%4%

1st Half

133%
X44%
224%

1st Score

153%
X7%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-1

16%

2-2

16%

X-X

15%

X-2

13%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.6%

1-0

10.5%

0-1

9.0%

2-1

8.7%

1-2

7.4%

0-0

7.0%

2-0

6.9%

2-2

5.3%

0-2

4.8%

3-1

4.1%

3-0

3.3%

1-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Aberdeen – Falkirk prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

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