2. Leagues
  3. Premiership
  4. St. Mirren vs Hearts

St. Mirren vs Hearts 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Premiership - Season 2025/2026 (Round 25)

Fair result
St. MirrenSt. Mirren

1–0

HeartsHearts
2.2Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances St. Mirren would usually take 2.5 points and Hearts 0.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Hearts.

St. Mirren +0.5 pts vs chancesHearts −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

St. Mirren vs Hearts stats: how the match was played

Premiership

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

St. Mirren had more than twice the shots on target

St. Mirren

Hearts

5

Shots on target

2

5

Big chances

0

7

Corners

2

1

Yellow cards

1

0

Red cards

1

53%

Possession

47%

The match between St. Mirren and Hearts ended 1-0. Our AI model predicted an Hearts win at 52% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: St. Mirren – Dundee prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

St. Mirren vs Hearts — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premiership

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hearts to win

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,471 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.8% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,456 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,148 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 3,654 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 44%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,656 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

St. Mirren Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

St. Mirren 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 834 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 73.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Hearts Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hearts 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,010 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

St. Mirren vs Hearts 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for St. Mirren vs Hearts. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premiership - Scotland
St. MirrenSt. Mirren1
HeartsHearts0

Winner

2 52%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

122%
X25%
252%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT28%72%53%47%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
St. Mirren44%56%77%23%
Hearts22%78%54%46%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
St. Mirren93%7%98%2%
Hearts79%21%93%7%

1st Half

121%
X44%
235%

1st Score

135%
X9%
256%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

28%

X-2

21%

X-X

16%

1-1

12%

X-1

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-1

12.7%

1-1

11.6%

0-2

9.9%

1-2

9.5%

0-0

8.5%

1-0

7.3%

2-1

5.7%

0-3

5.3%

1-3

5.1%

2-2

4.4%

2-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: St. Mirren – Dundee prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores