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St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock 4-3 Score & Prediction Review

Premiership - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Fair result
St. JohnstoneSt. Johnstone

4–3

KilmarnockKilmarnock
1.1Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances St. Johnstone would usually take 1.4 points and Kilmarnock 1.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: St. Johnstone.

St. Johnstone +1.7 pts vs chancesKilmarnock −1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock stats: how the match was played

Premiership

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

St. Johnstone

Kilmarnock

5

Shots on target

4

3

Big chances

2

6

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

2

56%

Possession

45%

The match between St. Johnstone and Kilmarnock ended 4-3. Our AI model correctly predicted a St. Johnstone win with 57% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: St. Johnstone – Motherwell prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premiership

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

St. Johnstone to win

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

St. Johnstone ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 47%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

St. Johnstone Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

St. Johnstone 2+ goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: St. Johnstone 0–1 goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Kilmarnock Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Kilmarnock 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 76%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock 4-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premiership - Scotland
St. JohnstoneSt. Johnstone4
KilmarnockKilmarnock3

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

157%
X22%
222%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%47%53%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT58%42%81%19%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
St. Johnstone19%81%47%53%
Kilmarnock44%56%76%24%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
St. Johnstone73%27%89%11%
Kilmarnock92%8%98%2%

1st Half

147%
X37%
217%

1st Score

168%
X6%
226%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

44%

X-1

18%

X-X

12%

2-2

8%

X-2

6%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

11.1%

1-1

10.4%

2-1

9.8%

2-0

9.8%

0-1

6.2%

0-0

5.9%

3-0

5.8%

3-1

5.8%

1-2

5.3%

2-2

4.6%

0-2

3.3%

3-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: St. Johnstone – Motherwell prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

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