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Motherwell vs Aberdeen 0-4 Score & Prediction Review

Premiership - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
MotherwellMotherwell

0–4

AberdeenAberdeen
1.2Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Motherwell would usually take 1.5 points and Aberdeen 1.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Motherwell.

Motherwell −1.5 pts vs chancesAberdeen +1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Motherwell vs Aberdeen stats: how the match was played

Premiership

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Motherwell

Aberdeen

5

Shots on target

4

1

Big chances

1

5

Corners

2

2

Yellow cards

3

69%

Possession

31%

The match between Motherwell and Aberdeen ended 0-4. Our AI model predicted a Motherwell win at 49% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: St. Johnstone – Motherwell prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Motherwell vs Aberdeen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premiership

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Motherwell to win

Wrong
Our model 49%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 6,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 2,848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 73%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 4,543 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Motherwell ahead at half-time.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 2,263 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Motherwell Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Motherwell 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Motherwell 2+ goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Aberdeen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aberdeen 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 73%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,367 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Motherwell vs Aberdeen 0-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Motherwell vs Aberdeen. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premiership - Scotland
MotherwellMotherwell0
AberdeenAberdeen4

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

149%
X25%
226%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT63%37%85%15%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Motherwell23%77%55%45%
Aberdeen40%60%73%27%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Motherwell80%20%93%7%
Aberdeen91%9%97%3%

1st Half

138%
X40%
222%

1st Score

155%
X7%
238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

17%

X-X

14%

2-2

14%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.8%

1-0

11.7%

2-1

9.5%

2-0

9.1%

0-0

7.4%

0-1

7.3%

1-2

6.4%

2-2

5.0%

3-1

4.7%

3-0

4.5%

0-2

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: St. Johnstone – Motherwell prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

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