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Falkirk vs Hearts 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Premiership - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
FalkirkFalkirk

2–1

HeartsHearts
1.5Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Falkirk would usually take 1.7 points and Hearts 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Hearts.

Falkirk +1.3 pts vs chancesHearts −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Falkirk vs Hearts stats: how the match was played

Premiership

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Falkirk

Hearts

4

Shots on target

4

4

Big chances

2

3

Corners

4

4

Yellow cards

3

42%

Possession

58%

The match between Falkirk and Hearts ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an Hearts win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Aberdeen – Falkirk prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Falkirk vs Hearts — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premiership

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hearts to win

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.4% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 38%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 1,982 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.5% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Falkirk Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Falkirk 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Hearts Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hearts 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Hearts 2+ goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 843 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.5% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Falkirk vs Hearts 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Falkirk vs Hearts. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premiership - Scotland
FalkirkFalkirk2
HeartsHearts1

Winner

X2 68%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

132%
X25%
243%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%81%41%59%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT52%48%78%22%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Falkirk31%69%62%38%
Hearts23%77%53%47%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Falkirk84%16%95%5%
Hearts77%23%91%9%

1st Half

129%
X38%
232%

1st Score

144%
X5%
251%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

24%

1-1

20%

X-X

14%

X-2

13%

X-1

12%

2-X

7%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.8%

1-2

8.9%

0-1

7.5%

2-1

7.4%

1-0

6.7%

2-2

6.6%

0-2

6.1%

1-3

5.0%

0-0

5.0%

2-0

4.5%

2-3

3.7%

3-1

3.6%

0-3

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Aberdeen – Falkirk prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

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