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Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Premiership - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Fair result
KilmarnockKilmarnock

0–1

St. MirrenSt. Mirren
0.8Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Kilmarnock would usually take 1.3 points and St. Mirren 1.4; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: St. Mirren.

Kilmarnock −1.3 pts vs chancesSt. Mirren +1.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren stats: how the match was played

Premiership

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Kilmarnock had more than twice the shots on target

Kilmarnock

St. Mirren

2

Shots on target

1

1

Big chances

1

7

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

2

47%

Possession

54%

The match between Kilmarnock and St. Mirren ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an St. Mirren win with 39% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: St. Mirren – Hibernian prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premiership

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

St. Mirren to win

Correct
Our model 39%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Kilmarnock Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Kilmarnock 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

St. Mirren Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

St. Mirren 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 1,616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premiership - Scotland
KilmarnockKilmarnock0
St. MirrenSt. Mirren1

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 54%

Full Time

136%
X26%
239%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT20%80%42%58%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT54%46%79%21%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Kilmarnock28%72%59%41%
St. Mirren26%74%57%43%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Kilmarnock82%18%94%6%
St. Mirren81%20%93%7%

1st Half

127%
X41%
232%

1st Score

143%
X5%
251%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

24%

1-1

19%

X-X

15%

X-2

14%

X-1

12%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.3%

1-2

8.7%

2-1

8.2%

0-1

7.5%

1-0

7.1%

2-2

6.7%

0-0

5.4%

0-2

5.3%

2-0

4.9%

1-3

4.4%

3-1

4.1%

2-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: St. Mirren – Hibernian prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

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