Slow starters
2/10Boston River scored first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 46%).
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Boston River vs Defensor Sporting Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 11)
Slow starters
Boston River scored first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 46%).
2/10Scored first · Boston River
Bookmakers: Boston River 36% to winDefensor Sporting 36%
Boston River vs Defensor Sporting score prediction
Primera Division
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.2 goals in total, a little under the Primera Division average of 2.4.
goals expected
Boston River1.1
Defensor Sporting1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Boston River vs Defensor Sporting: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Boston River vs Defensor Sporting — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Primera Division
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Boston River to win
Our model 43%Bookmakers 36%
Our track record
In 3,595 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.8% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 6,431 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 5,277 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 77%Bookmakers 77%
Our track record
In 3,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 44%Bookmakers 45%
Our track record
In 6,663 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Boston River Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Boston River 0–1 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 3,434 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Defensor Sporting Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Defensor Sporting 0–1 goals
Our model 72%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 3,344 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Boston River vs Defensor Sporting — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Boston River vs Defensor Sporting. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Boston River–
Defensor Sporting–Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 67%
Boston River–Defensor Sporting–Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 67%
Full Time
143%
X28%
229%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 67% | 33% | 88% | 12% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26% | 74% | 61% | 39% |
| 37% | 63% | 72% | 28% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 91% | 9% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
133%
X44%
223%
1st Score
151%
X9%
240%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
24%
X-X
19%
X-1
16%
2-2
15%
X-2
11%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.5%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
9.2%
0-0
8.8%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
4.7%
0-2
4.5%
3-1
3.8%
3-0
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Boston River vs Defensor Sporting: the stats that stand out
Primera Division
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Boston River: slow starters · Defensor Sporting: flop as favourites
2/10Flop as favourites
1/7Defensor Sporting won only 1 of 7 as favourites (league 45%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Boston River vs Defensor Sporting: attack vs defence
Primera Division
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Primera Division teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Boston River: weak attack, weak defence (1.11 xG, 1.27 xGA a game)
- Defensor Sporting: good attack, weak defence (1.25 xG, 1.23 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Boston River vs Defensor Sporting form and luck check
Primera Division
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Primera Division gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Boston RiverBookmakers: 36% to win today. · 6 of 10 games+2.0
- Defensor SportingBookmakers: 36% to win today. · 5 of 10 games−2.0
Last 5 matches
Defensor SportingL
L
W
L
W
Boston RiverW
D
L
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Boston River 11th of 16 · Defensor Sporting 7th of 16
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 16 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Boston River vs Defensor Sporting: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Primera Division
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Primera Division gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Boston River and Defensor Sporting games more often than the Primera Division average (49%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 43%
Boston River6 of 10
Defensor Sporting5 of 10
BTTSleague 49%
Boston River7 of 10
Defensor Sporting6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 293 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Boston River vs Defensor Sporting corners, cards and goal times
Primera Division
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Primera Division average
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
3.8
Corners won · league 4.5
4.7
4.8
Corners conceded · league 4.5
4.8
2.7
Cards · league 3.0
2.7
2.5
Opponents' cards · league 3.0
3.9
31%
Goals before half-time · league 46%
45%
15%
Goals after 75' · league 26%
27%
46%
Conceded before half-time · league 46%
26%
31%
Conceded after 75' · league 26%
63%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Boston River2/5
Defensor Sporting3/5
Both Teams to Score
Boston River0/5
Defensor Sporting2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Boston River1/5
Defensor Sporting2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Boston River3/5
Defensor Sporting2/5
First Half Result
Boston River2/5
Defensor Sporting1/5
Correct Score
Boston River0/5
Defensor Sporting0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction