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Wanderers vs Atlético Progreso Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 12)
Wanderers vs Progreso score prediction
Primera Division
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Wanderers expected to create clearly more
2.3 goals in total, a little under the Primera Division average of 2.4.
goals expected
Wanderers1.4
Progreso1.0Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Wanderers vs Progreso — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Primera Division
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Wanderers to win
Our track record
In 2,096 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our track record
In 3,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 3,077 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 1,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
Wanderers 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 2,672 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Progreso 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 3,349 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Wanderers vs Progreso — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Wanderers vs Progreso. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Wanderers–
Progreso–Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 71%
Wanderers–Progreso–Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 71%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 34% | 66% | 61% | 39% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 71% | 29% | 91% | 9% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31% | 69% | 67% | 33% |
| 37% | 63% | 73% | 27% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
| 91% | 9% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
X-X
19%
2-2
16%
X-1
15%
X-2
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.5%
1-0
12.8%
0-1
10.9%
0-0
10.2%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
4.1%
3-1
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Wanderers vs Progreso: attack vs defence
Primera Division
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Primera Division teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Wanderers: good attack, good defence (1.24 xG, 1.09 xGA a game)
- Progreso: weak attack, good defence (0.93 xG, 1.03 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Wanderers vs Progreso form and luck check
Primera Division
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Primera Division gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- WanderersBookmakers: 43% to win today. · 6 of 10 games+1.2
- ProgresoBookmakers: 28% to win today. · 5 of 10 games+0.2
Last 5 matches
ProgresoWanderersStrength rank: Wanderers 13th of 16 · Progreso 15th of 16
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 16 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Wanderers vs Progreso: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Primera Division
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Primera Division gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Wanderers and Progreso games more often than the Primera Division average (49%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 292 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Wanderers vs Progreso corners, cards and goal times
Primera Division
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameWanderers score early, Progreso late
Wanderers
Progreso
4.7
Corners won · league 4.5
3.8
4.0
Corners conceded · league 4.5
5.6
2.2
Cards · league 3.0
2.6
2.4
Opponents' cards · league 3.0
2.4
67%
Goals before half-time · league 46%
33%
8%
Goals after 75' · league 26%
50%
24%
Conceded before half-time · league 46%
25%
24%
Conceded after 75' · league 26%
50%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
WanderersProgresoBoth Teams to Score
WanderersProgresoOver/Under 2.5 Goals
WanderersProgresoOver/Under 3.5 Goals
WanderersProgresoFirst Half Result
WanderersProgresoCorrect Score
WanderersProgreso