Fast starters
7/10Progreso scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 46%).
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Atlético Progreso vs Defensor Sporting Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 13)
Fast starters
Progreso scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 46%).
7/10Scored first · Progreso
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting score prediction
Primera Division
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.1 goals in total, a little under the Primera Division average of 2.4.
goals expected
Progreso1.0
Defensor Sporting1.2Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Primera Division
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Defensor Sporting to win
Our model 40%Bookmakers 37%
Our track record
In 2,085 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).
Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 51%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 3,093 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 5,304 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 79%Bookmakers 75%
Our track record
In 3,633 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 47%Bookmakers 45%
Our track record
In 4,268 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Progreso Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Progreso 0–1 goals
Our model 71%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 1,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Defensor Sporting Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Defensor Sporting 0–1 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 3,287 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Progreso–
Defensor Sporting–Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Progreso–Defensor Sporting–Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Full Time
132%
X28%
240%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 68% | 58% | 42% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 69% | 31% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 65% | 71% | 29% |
| 30% | 70% | 65% | 35% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 9% | 98% | 2% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
125%
X47%
229%
1st Score
141%
X10%
249%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
20%
X-X
19%
1-1
18%
X-2
15%
X-1
13%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.1%
0-1
12.1%
1-0
10.7%
0-0
9.7%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
5.7%
2-2
4.6%
1-3
3.6%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting: the stats that stand out
Primera Division
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Progreso: fast starters and always on the scoresheet
7/10Always on the scoresheet
1/10Progreso failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 30%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Progreso vs Defensor Sporting: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Primera Division
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Primera Division gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Progreso and Defensor Sporting games more often than the Primera Division average (49%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 43%
Progreso4 of 10
Defensor Sporting5 of 10
BTTSleague 49%
Progreso5 of 10
Defensor Sporting7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 292 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Progreso vs Defensor Sporting — Recent Form
Last 5 matches
ProgresoW
W
D
L
W
Defensor SportingD
L
L
L
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Progreso 15th of 16 · Defensor Sporting 7th of 16
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting corners, cards and goal times
Primera Division
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 4.5
- Cards: league 3.0
- Goals before half-time: league 46%
- Goals after 75': league 27%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Defensor Sporting3/5
Progreso1/5
Both Teams to Score
Defensor Sporting1/5
Progreso2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Defensor Sporting2/5
Progreso3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Defensor Sporting2/5
Progreso4/5
First Half Result
Defensor Sporting0/5
Progreso2/5
Correct Score
Defensor Sporting0/5
Progreso0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction