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River Plate vs Defensor Sporting

River Plate vs Defensor Sporting 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2024 (Round 8)

River Plate vs Defensor Sporting stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Defensor Sporting had more than twice the shots on target

River Plate

Defensor Sporting

Shots on target

Corners

Yellow cards

The match between River Plate and Defensor Sporting ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an Defensor Sporting win with 59% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Progreso – Defensor Sporting prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).

River Plate vs Defensor Sporting — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Defensor Sporting to win

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 1,800 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,149 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,966 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Defensor Sporting ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 2,267 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

River Plate Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

River Plate 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 79%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 829 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Defensor Sporting Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Defensor Sporting 2+ goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Defensor Sporting 0–1 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 845 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.5% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

River Plate vs Defensor Sporting 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for River Plate vs Defensor Sporting. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

River Plate0

Defensor Sporting1

Winner

2 59%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

0-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

River Plate0

Defensor Sporting1

Winner

2 59%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

0-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

118%

X23%

259%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	47%	53%	60%	40%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	47%	53%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	60%	40%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	45%	55%	79%	21%	94%	6%	99%	1%
	17%	83%	46%	54%	73%	27%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	45%	55%	79%	21%
	17%	83%	46%	54%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	94%	6%	99%	1%
	73%	27%	89%	11%

1st Half

118%

X41%

241%

1st Score

131%

X7%

263%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

33%

X-2

20%

X-X

15%

1-1

10%

X-1

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

0-1

11.6%

1-2

10.9%

1-1

10.8%

0-2

9.8%

0-0

6.6%

1-3

6.5%

0-3

6.0%

1-0

5.6%

2-2

5.0%

2-1

4.9%

2-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Progreso – Defensor Sporting prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).