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Juventud vs Nacional 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 5)

Fair result
JuventudJuventud

3–1

NacionalNacional
1.1Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Juventud would usually take 1.4 points and Nacional 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Nacional.

Juventud +1.6 pts vs chancesNacional −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Juventud vs Nacional stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Juventud had clearly more shots on target

Juventud

Nacional

7

Shots on target

4

0

Big chances

0

5

Corners

5

5

Yellow cards

1

40%

Possession

60%

The match between Juventud and Nacional ended 3-1. Our AI model predicted an Nacional win at 53% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Nacional – Liverpool prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Juventud vs Nacional — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nacional to win

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 2,477 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,694 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 61%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,092 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 81%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,715 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Nacional ahead at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,222 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Juventud Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Juventud 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 82%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 390 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.0% of the time (bookmakers said 80.4%).

Nacional Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nacional 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Nacional 2+ goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 638 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Juventud vs Nacional 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Juventud vs Nacional. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Primera Division - Uruguay
JuventudJuventud3
NacionalNacional1

Winner

2 53%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

0-1 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 71%

Full Time

120%
X27%
253%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT34%66%61%39%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT71%29%90%10%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Juventud48%52%82%18%
Nacional24%76%58%42%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Juventud96%4%99%1%
Nacional83%17%94%6%

1st Half

120%
X43%
237%

1st Score

131%
X11%
258%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

33%

X-X

17%

X-2

17%

1-1

11%

X-1

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

15.5%

1-1

12.2%

0-2

11.0%

0-0

10.8%

1-2

9.1%

1-0

8.0%

0-3

5.0%

2-1

4.8%

1-3

4.2%

2-2

3.6%

2-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Nacional – Liverpool prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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