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Central Español vs Defensor Sporting 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 5)

Fair result
Central EspañolCentral Español

1–1

Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting
1.3Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Central Español would usually take 1.6 points and Defensor Sporting 1.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Defensor Sporting.

Central Español −0.6 pts vs chancesDefensor Sporting −0.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Central Español vs Defensor Sporting stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Central Español had clearly more shots on target

Central Español

Defensor Sporting

6

Shots on target

4

1

Big chances

0

7

Corners

2

1

Yellow cards

2

43%

Possession

58%

The match between Central Español and Defensor Sporting ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Defensor Sporting win at 39% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Central Español vs Defensor Sporting — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Defensor Sporting to win

Wrong
Our model 39%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,085 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 1,169 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.9% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 85%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 1,674 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.9% of the time (bookmakers said 81.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 1,253 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.3% of the time (bookmakers said 51.6%).

Central Español Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Central Español 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 819 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.6% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Defensor Sporting Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Defensor Sporting 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,366 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.4% of the time (bookmakers said 71.9%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Central Español vs Defensor Sporting 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Central Español vs Defensor Sporting. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Primera Division - Uruguay
Central EspañolCentral Español1
Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1

Winner

X2 71%

BTTS*

No 59%

Correct Score

0-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 67%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 75%

Full Time

129%
X32%
239%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT41%59%67%33%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT75%25%93%7%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Central Español41%59%77%23%
Defensor Sporting34%66%70%30%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Central Español94%6%99%1%
Defensor Sporting90%10%97%3%

1st Half

123%
X51%
226%

1st Score

140%
X14%
246%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

24%

2-2

20%

1-1

16%

X-2

14%

X-1

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

14.3%

0-0

14.2%

1-1

13.4%

1-0

12.1%

1-2

7.5%

0-2

7.3%

2-1

6.3%

2-0

5.3%

2-2

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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