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Peñarol vs Albion 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 6)

Fair result
PeñarolPeñarol

3–1

AlbionAlbion
1.4Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Peñarol would usually take 1.3 points and Albion 1.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Peñarol.

Peñarol +1.7 pts vs chancesAlbion −1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Peñarol vs Albion stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Peñarol had clearly more shots on target

Peñarol

Albion

7

Shots on target

4

0

Big chances

0

7

Corners

3

3

Yellow cards

1

36%

Possession

64%

The match between Peñarol and Albion ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Peñarol win with 54% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Juventud – Peñarol prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Peñarol vs Albion — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Peñarol to win

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 2,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 6,457 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,301 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 80%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 1,715 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Peñarol ahead at half-time.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,225 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Peñarol Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Peñarol 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Peñarol 2+ goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 1,010 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.0% than to our 55–60%.

Albion Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Albion 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 82%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 1,496 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.9% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Peñarol vs Albion 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Peñarol vs Albion. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Primera Division - Uruguay
PeñarolPeñarol3
AlbionAlbion1

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

154%
X26%
221%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT33%67%59%41%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT70%30%90%10%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Peñarol23%77%57%43%
Albion47%53%82%18%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Peñarol82%18%94%6%
Albion96%4%99%1%

1st Half

139%
X44%
217%

1st Score

159%
X10%
232%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

X-1

20%

X-X

18%

2-2

12%

X-2

8%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-0

14.8%

1-1

12.4%

2-0

10.8%

2-1

10.0%

0-0

9.8%

0-1

8.1%

3-0

5.2%

1-2

5.0%

3-1

4.7%

2-2

3.4%

0-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Juventud – Peñarol prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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