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  4. Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado

Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 6)

Fair result
Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting

1–0

Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado
1.8Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Defensor Sporting would usually take 1.9 points and Deportivo Maldonado 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Deportivo Maldonado.

Defensor Sporting +1.1 pts vs chancesDeportivo Maldonado −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Defensor Sporting had more than twice the shots on target

Defensor Sporting

Deportivo Maldonado

9

Shots on target

3

0

Big chances

0

4

Corners

5

1

Yellow cards

4

38%

Possession

62%

The match between Defensor Sporting and Deportivo Maldonado ended 1-0. Our AI model predicted an Deportivo Maldonado win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Defensor Sporting – Racing prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Maldonado to win

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 3,599 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,457 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 3,077 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 81%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,715 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 48%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,235 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Defensor Sporting Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Defensor Sporting 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 829 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 73.8% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Deportivo Maldonado Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Maldonado 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,653 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Primera Division - Uruguay
Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1
Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado0

Winner

X2 73%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 71%

Full Time

127%
X30%
243%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT35%65%61%39%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT71%29%91%9%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Defensor Sporting41%59%76%24%
Deportivo Maldonado29%71%64%36%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Defensor Sporting93%7%98%2%
Deportivo Maldonado86%14%96%4%

1st Half

122%
X48%
230%

1st Score

137%
X11%
251%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

23%

X-X

22%

X-2

16%

1-1

14%

X-1

11%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

13.4%

1-1

13.2%

0-0

11.5%

1-0

9.7%

0-2

8.6%

1-2

8.4%

2-1

6.4%

2-0

4.6%

2-2

4.2%

0-3

3.7%

1-3

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Defensor Sporting – Racing prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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