Liverpool vs Progreso 3-2 Score & Prediction Review
Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 9)
Liverpool vs Progreso stats: how the match was played
Primera Division
Liverpool had clearly more shots on target
Liverpool
Progreso
5
Shots on target
3
3
Corners
4
4
Yellow cards
4
Liverpool vs Progreso — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Primera Division
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Liverpool to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,420 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.5% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 542 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.8% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 102 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.3% than to our 60–65%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,739 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Liverpool ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 494 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
Liverpool 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Liverpool 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 971 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Progreso 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,481 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.6% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Liverpool vs Progreso 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Liverpool vs Progreso. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Liverpool3
Progreso2Winner
1 53%
BTTS*
No 58%
Correct Score
1-0 17%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 72%
Liverpool3Progreso2Winner
1 53%
BTTS*
No 58%
Correct Score
1-0 17%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 72%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 36% | 64% | 62% | 38% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 72% | 28% | 91% | 9% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24% | 76% | 59% | 41% |
 | 48% | 52% | 82% | 18% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
| 96% | 4% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
31%
X-1
22%
X-X
19%
2-2
9%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
2-1
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
16.6%
1-1
12.3%
2-0
10.9%
0-0
10.8%
2-1
9.5%
0-1
8.2%
3-0
4.8%
1-2
4.6%
2-2
3.9%
3-1
3.7%
0-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Liverpool vs Progreso — Recent Form
Liverpool have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Progreso have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table.
Last 5 matches
LiverpoolProgresoOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
LiverpoolProgresoBoth Teams to Score
LiverpoolProgresoOver/Under 2.5 Goals
LiverpoolProgresoOver/Under 3.5 Goals
LiverpoolProgresoFirst Half Result
LiverpoolProgresoCorrect Score
LiverpoolProgreso