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Albion vs Defensor Sporting 3-2 Score & Prediction Review
Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 9)
Albion vs Defensor Sporting stats: how the match was played
Primera Division
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Albion
Defensor Sporting
7
Shots on target
6
2
Corners
9
5
Yellow cards
2
Albion vs Defensor Sporting — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Primera Division
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Albion to win
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Defensor Sporting to win.
Our track record
In 1,071 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,102 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,298 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,278 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
Albion 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,444 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Our model’s pick
Defensor Sporting 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,367 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.4% of the time (bookmakers said 71.9%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Albion vs Defensor Sporting 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Albion vs Defensor Sporting. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Albion3
Defensor Sporting2Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Albion3Defensor Sporting2Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 31% | 69% | 56% | 44% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 68% | 32% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29% | 71% | 63% | 37% |
 | 36% | 64% | 71% | 29% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
| 91% | 9% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
X-X
19%
2-2
16%
X-1
15%
X-2
12%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.7%
1-0
11.3%
0-1
10.0%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
7.6%
0-2
5.0%
2-2
4.6%
3-0
3.4%
3-1
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score