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Chapecoense vs Fluminense

Chapecoense vs Fluminense 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 32)

Smash-and-grab

Chapecoense won with less than half the chances

Chapecoense

2–1

Fluminense

0.6Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Chapecoense would usually take 0.7 points and Fluminense 2.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Fluminense.

Chapecoense +2.3 pts vs chancesFluminense −2.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Chapecoense vs Fluminense stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Chapecoense

Fluminense

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

26%

Possession

74%

The match between Chapecoense and Fluminense ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an Fluminense win at 42% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Internacional prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Chapecoense vs Fluminense — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fluminense to win

Wrong

Our model 42%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.4% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 76%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 3,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 47%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 4,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Chapecoense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chapecoense 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 71%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 1,589 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Fluminense Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fluminense 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Fluminense 2+ goals.

Our model 61%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 372 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.7% than to our 60–65%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Chapecoense vs Fluminense 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Chapecoense vs Fluminense. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Chapecoense2

Fluminense1

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Chapecoense2

Fluminense1

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

130%

X28%

242%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%	66%	34%	88%	12%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	36%	64%	70%	30%	90%	10%	97%	3%
	27%	73%	61%	39%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	36%	64%	70%	30%
	27%	73%	61%	39%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	90%	10%	97%	3%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

126%

X47%

227%

1st Score

143%

X9%

248%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

20%

X-X

18%

1-1

17%

X-2

16%

X-1

12%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

13.0%

0-1

11.3%

1-0

9.0%

1-2

8.9%

0-0

8.8%

0-2

7.4%

2-1

7.4%

2-2

5.2%

2-0

4.8%

1-3

3.9%

0-3

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Chapecoense vs Fluminense — Recent Form

Fluminense have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. Chapecoense have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 20th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Fluminense

Chapecoense

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Chapecoense

3/5

Fluminense

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Chapecoense

3/5

Fluminense

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Chapecoense

2/5

Fluminense

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Chapecoense

3/5

Fluminense

3/5

First Half Result

Chapecoense

2/5

Fluminense

3/5

Correct Score

Chapecoense

1/5

Fluminense

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Internacional prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).