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Santos vs Bahia

Santos vs Bahia 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 32)

Robbed

Santos drew despite more chances

Santos

1–1

Bahia

2.9Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Santos would usually take 2.2 points and Bahia 0.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Santos.

Santos −1.2 pts vs chancesBahia +0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Santos vs Bahia stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Santos had more than twice the shots on target

Santos

Bahia

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

56%

Possession

44%

The match between Santos and Bahia ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Santos win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bragantino – Santos prediction & betting tips (Nov 2, 2026).

Santos vs Bahia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Santos to win

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 3,514 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 6,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,158 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 72%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 4,564 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Santos ahead at half-time.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,276 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Santos Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Santos 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Santos 2+ goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 1,020 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.8% than to our 55–60%.

Bahia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bahia 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,372 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Santos vs Bahia 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Santos vs Bahia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Santos1

Bahia1

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Santos1

Bahia1

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

146%

X26%

228%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	26%	74%	50%	50%	62%	38%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	26%	74%	50%	50%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	62%	38%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	24%	76%	56%	44%	81%	19%	93%	7%
	36%	64%	71%	29%	90%	10%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	24%	76%	56%	44%
	36%	64%	71%	29%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	81%	19%	93%	7%
	90%	10%	97%	3%

1st Half

136%

X41%

223%

1st Score

156%

X7%

236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

X-1

18%

X-X

15%

2-2

13%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.1%

1-0

10.9%

2-1

9.6%

0-1

7.8%

2-0

7.6%

0-0

7.4%

1-2

6.8%

2-2

5.3%

3-1

4.7%

0-2

4.1%

3-0

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Santos vs Bahia — Recent Form

Bahia have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table. Santos have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Bahia

Santos

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Bahia

3/5

Santos

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Bahia

3/5

Santos

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Bahia

2/5

Santos

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Bahia

4/5

Santos

4/5

First Half Result

Bahia

3/5

Santos

3/5

Correct Score

Bahia

3/5

Santos

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bragantino – Santos prediction & betting tips (Nov 2, 2026).