Fast starters
9/10Flamengo scored first in 9 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Flamengo vs Grêmio Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 34)
Goal-fest alert
More goals than usual expected in Flamengo vs Grêmio
3.1goals expected · Serie A average 2.7
Since July 2025, games with an alert like this averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bookmakers: under 2.5 goals 37%
Flamengo vs Grêmio score prediction
Serie A
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.1 goals expected
3.1 goals in total: more goals than a typical Serie A game (average 2.7).
goals expected
Flamengo2.4
Grêmio0.7Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Flamengo vs Grêmio: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Flamengo vs Grêmio — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Flamengo to win
Our model 72%Bookmakers 81%
Our track record
In 327 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.5% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 59%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 5,707 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 37%
Our track record
In 2,847 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 73%Bookmakers 59%
Our track record
In 4,543 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Flamengo ahead at half-time
Our model 57%Bookmakers 61%
Our track record
In 304 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.2% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Flamengo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Flamengo 2+ goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 75%
Our track record
In 3,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Grêmio Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Grêmio 0–1 goals
Our model 90%Bookmakers 88%
Our track record
In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.3% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Flamengo vs Grêmio — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Flamengo vs Grêmio. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Flamengo–
Grêmio–Winner
1 72%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Flamengo–Grêmio–Winner
1 72%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
172%
X19%
29%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 82% | 18% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13% | 87% | 40% | 60% |
| 62% | 38% | 90% | 10% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 33% | 85% | 15% |
| 98% | 2% | 100% | 0% |
1st Half
157%
X33%
29%
1st Score
175%
X8%
217%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
52%
X-1
21%
X-X
10%
1-X
4%
2-2
4%
X-2
3%
2-X
3%
2-1
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
15.6%
2-0
14.6%
3-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
1-1
8.3%
0-0
7.6%
3-1
6.0%
0-1
3.9%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Flamengo vs Grêmio: the stats that stand out
Serie A
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Flamengo: fast starters, brick wall and always on the scoresheet
9/10Brick wall
5/10Flamengo kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 25%).
Always on the scoresheet
0/10Flamengo scored in all of their last 10 (league 25% fail to score).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Flamengo vs Grêmio: attack vs defence
Serie A
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Serie A teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Flamengo: good attack, good defence (2.27 xG, 1.27 xGA a game)
- Grêmio: weak attack, weak defence (1.41 xG, 2.01 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Flamengo vs Grêmio form and luck check
Serie A
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Serie A gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- FlamengoBookmakers: 81% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals+3.2
- GrêmioBookmakers: 5% to win today.−0.8
Last 5 matches
FlamengoW
W
W
D
W
GrêmioW
L
D
D
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Flamengo 1st of 20 · Grêmio 16th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Flamengo vs Grêmio: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Serie A
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Serie A gamesBTTS = both teams scoredFlamengo games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Serie A average (52%), Grêmio games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 52%
Flamengo7 of 10
Grêmio4 of 10
BTTSleague 57%
Flamengo5 of 10
Grêmio6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 403 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Flamengo vs Grêmio corners, cards and goal times
Serie A
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.2
- Cards: league 2.4
- Goals before half-time: league 44%
- Goals after 75': league 23%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Flamengo3/5
Grêmio0/5
Both Teams to Score
Flamengo1/5
Grêmio3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Flamengo2/5
Grêmio4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Flamengo3/5
Grêmio4/5
First Half Result
Flamengo3/5
Grêmio2/5
Correct Score
Flamengo1/5
Grêmio2/5
correct predictionwrong prediction