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Sport Recife vs Botafogo 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2025 (Round 15)

Fair result
Sport RecifeSport Recife

0–1

BotafogoBotafogo
1.1Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Sport Recife would usually take 1.1 points and Botafogo 1.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Botafogo.

Sport Recife −1.1 pts vs chancesBotafogo +1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Sport Recife vs Botafogo stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Sport Recife

Botafogo

5

Shots on target

5

0

Big chances

3

6

Corners

4

1

Yellow cards

2

41%

Possession

60%

The match between Sport Recife and Botafogo ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an Botafogo win with 40% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Internacional – Botafogo prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Sport Recife vs Botafogo — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Botafogo to win

Correct
Our model 40%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,687 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 3,086 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 83%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 1,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 4,243 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Sport Recife Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sport Recife 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,581 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.9% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Botafogo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Botafogo 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,274 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Sport Recife vs Botafogo 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sport Recife vs Botafogo. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
Sport RecifeSport Recife0
BotafogoBotafogo1

Winner

X2 69%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 73%

Full Time

131%
X29%
240%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT36%64%63%37%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT73%27%91%9%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Sport Recife40%60%74%26%
Botafogo32%68%68%32%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Sport Recife92%8%98%2%
Botafogo88%12%97%3%

1st Half

127%
X50%
223%

1st Score

148%
X12%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

22%

1-1

20%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-2

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

13.3%

1-1

13.1%

0-0

11.7%

1-0

10.9%

0-2

7.9%

1-2

7.6%

2-1

6.9%

2-0

5.6%

2-2

3.8%

0-3

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Internacional – Botafogo prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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