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Cruzeiro vs Coritiba 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 2)

Fair result
CruzeiroCruzeiro

1–2

CoritibaCoritiba
1.5Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Cruzeiro would usually take 1.8 points and Coritiba 0.9; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Cruzeiro.

Cruzeiro −1.8 pts vs chancesCoritiba +2.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cruzeiro vs Coritiba stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Cruzeiro had more than twice the shots on target

Cruzeiro

Coritiba

4

Shots on target

2

0

Big chances

2

12

Corners

2

3

Yellow cards

2

67%

Possession

33%

The match between Cruzeiro and Coritiba ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Cruzeiro win at 61% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cruzeiro – Remo prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Cruzeiro vs Coritiba — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cruzeiro to win

Wrong
Our model 61%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 1,056 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.9% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,693 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 3,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Cruzeiro ahead at half-time.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 544 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.8% than to our 45–50%.

Cruzeiro Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Coritiba Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Coritiba 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 85%Bookmakers 88%

Our track record

In 595 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cruzeiro vs Coritiba 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cruzeiro vs Coritiba. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
CruzeiroCruzeiro1
CoritibaCoritiba2

Winner

1 61%

BTTS*

No 58%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

161%
X23%
216%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%55%45%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%85%15%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Cruzeiro19%81%49%51%
Coritiba54%46%85%15%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Cruzeiro74%26%88%12%
Coritiba96%4%99%1%

1st Half

137%
X46%
217%

1st Score

161%
X9%
230%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

X-1

18%

X-X

18%

2-2

10%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-0

14.3%

2-0

12.3%

1-1

10.8%

2-1

9.0%

0-0

8.8%

3-0

7.0%

0-1

6.3%

3-1

5.0%

1-2

4.0%

2-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cruzeiro – Remo prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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