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Vasco da Gama vs Chapecoense

Vasco da Gama vs Chapecoense 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 2)

Robbed

Vasco da Gama drew despite more chances

Vasco da Gama

1–1

Chapecoense

3.9Chances (xG)0.5

On these chances Vasco da Gama would usually take 2.8 points and Chapecoense 0.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Vasco da Gama.

Vasco da Gama −1.8 pts vs chancesChapecoense +0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Vasco da Gama vs Chapecoense stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Vasco da Gama had more than twice the shots on target

Vasco da Gama

Chapecoense

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

66%

Possession

34%

The match between Vasco da Gama and Chapecoense ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Vasco da Gama win at 45% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Chapecoense – Athletico PR prediction & betting tips (Oct 12, 2026).

Vasco da Gama vs Chapecoense — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vasco da Gama to win

Wrong

Our model 45%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 3,384 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,325 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,776 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 75%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 4,440 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.7%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Vasco da Gama ahead at half-time.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Vasco da Gama Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vasco da Gama 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Vasco da Gama 2+ goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 974 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 55–60%.

Chapecoense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chapecoense 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 3,272 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Vasco da Gama vs Chapecoense 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Vasco da Gama vs Chapecoense. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Vasco da Gama1

Chapecoense1

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Vasco da Gama1

Chapecoense1

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

145%

X27%

228%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%	65%	35%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	65%	35%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	24%	76%	58%	42%	83%	17%	94%	6%
	37%	63%	71%	29%	91%	9%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	24%	76%	58%	42%
	37%	63%	71%	29%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	94%	6%
	91%	9%	98%	2%

1st Half

132%

X46%

222%

1st Score

154%

X8%

238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

X-X

20%

X-1

15%

2-2

15%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.7%

1-0

11.2%

2-1

9.7%

2-0

8.0%

0-0

7.9%

0-1

7.8%

1-2

7.3%

2-2

5.2%

0-2

4.6%

3-1

4.2%

3-0

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Chapecoense – Athletico PR prediction & betting tips (Oct 12, 2026).