Atlético Mineiro vs Internacional 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 5)
Atlético Mineiro won with less than half the chances
Atlético Mineiro1–0
InternacionalOn these chances Atlético Mineiro would usually take 0.7 points and Internacional 2.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Mineiro.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Atlético Mineiro vs Internacional stats: how the match was played
Serie A
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Internacional had more than twice the shots on target
Atlético Mineiro
Internacional
3
Shots on target
7
3
Big chances
3
2
Corners
14
2
Yellow cards
2
36%
Possession
64%
Atlético Mineiro vs Internacional — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Atlético Mineiro to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,440 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.4% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,108 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,254 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,647 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,623 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Atlético Mineiro 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,424 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
Internacional 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,567 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Atlético Mineiro vs Internacional 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Mineiro vs Internacional. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Atlético Mineiro1
Internacional0Winner
1X 77%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Atlético Mineiro1Internacional0Winner
1X 77%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 68% | 58% | 42% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 69% | 31% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24% | 76% | 58% | 42% |
| 44% | 56% | 79% | 22% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 17% | 94% | 6% |
| 94% | 6% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
29%
X-1
17%
X-X
16%
2-2
12%
X-2
9%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
14.1%
1-1
12.4%
0-0
10.2%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.5%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
4.7%
2-2
4.3%
3-1
4.2%
0-2
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score