Bahia vs Vitória 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 5)
Bahia drew despite more chances
Bahia1–1
VitóriaOn these chances Bahia would usually take 2.0 points and Vitória 0.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Bahia.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Bahia vs Vitória stats: how the match was played
Serie A
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Bahia had more than twice the shots on target
Bahia
Vitória
7
Shots on target
2
2
Big chances
1
7
Corners
3
1
Yellow cards
1
63%
Possession
37%
Bahia vs Vitória — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Bahia to win
WrongOur track record
In 618 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.6% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 548 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,849 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,966 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Bahia ahead at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 552 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.8% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
Bahia 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,467 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Our model’s pick
Vitória 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 598 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.3% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Bahia vs Vitória 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Bahia vs Vitória. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Bahia1
Vitória1Winner
1 69%
BTTS*
No 56%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Bahia1Vitória1Winner
1 69%
BTTS*
No 56%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 60% | 40% | 80% | 20% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14% | 86% | 40% | 60% |
| 56% | 44% | 86% | 14% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 33% | 85% | 15% |
| 97% | 3% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
48%
X-1
19%
X-X
11%
2-2
6%
X-2
5%
1-X
4%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
13.2%
2-0
12.8%
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.0%
3-0
8.8%
0-0
6.5%
3-1
6.4%
0-1
4.5%
2-2
3.4%
1-2
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score