Mirassol vs Grêmio 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 19)
Mirassol2–1
GrêmioOn these chances Mirassol would usually take 1.6 points and Grêmio 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Mirassol.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Mirassol vs Grêmio stats: how the match was played
Serie A
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Mirassol
Grêmio
3
Shots on target
4
3
Big chances
1
5
Corners
4
1
Yellow cards
3
43%
Possession
57%
Mirassol vs Grêmio — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Mirassol to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,478 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 6,452 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,298 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
Mirassol 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,452 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Our model’s pick
Grêmio 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,574 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Mirassol vs Grêmio 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Mirassol vs Grêmio. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Mirassol2
Grêmio1Winner
1X 74%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Mirassol2Grêmio1Winner
1X 74%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 31% | 69% | 58% | 42% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 69% | 31% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26% | 74% | 60% | 40% |
| 40% | 60% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
27%
X-X
20%
X-1
17%
2-2
11%
X-2
9%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.4%
1-0
13.1%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
8.7%
2-0
8.6%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.5%
3-0
4.0%
0-2
4.0%
3-1
3.9%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score