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Internacional vs Santos 2-3 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 26)

Smash-and-grab

Santos won with fewer chances than Internacional

InternacionalInternacional

2–3

SantosSantos
2.2Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Internacional would usually take 2.0 points and Santos 0.9; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Internacional.

Internacional −2.0 pts vs chancesSantos +2.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Internacional vs Santos stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Internacional had more than twice the shots on target

Internacional

Santos

6

Shots on target

3

2

Big chances

3

7

Corners

2

4

Yellow cards

4

1

Red cards

0

39%

Possession

61%

The match between Internacional and Santos ended 2-3. Our AI model predicted a Internacional win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Santos prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Internacional vs Santos — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Internacional to win

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,514 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,506 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,338 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 80%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 45%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,724 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Internacional Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Internacional 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Santos Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Santos 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 78%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,601 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Internacional vs Santos 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Internacional vs Santos. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
InternacionalInternacional2
SantosSantos3

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

146%
X29%
225%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT34%66%60%40%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT70%30%90%10%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Internacional27%73%62%38%
Santos42%58%78%22%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Internacional85%15%95%5%
Santos94%6%99%1%

1st Half

137%
X44%
218%

1st Score

155%
X11%
234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

X-1

18%

X-X

17%

2-2

11%

X-2

10%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

13.8%

1-1

13.0%

0-0

11.0%

0-1

9.5%

2-1

9.4%

2-0

8.6%

1-2

6.0%

0-2

4.1%

3-0

4.0%

2-2

3.9%

3-1

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Santos prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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