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Vitória vs Cruzeiro 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 28)

Smash-and-grab

Cruzeiro won with fewer chances than Vitória

VitóriaVitória

1–3

CruzeiroCruzeiro
2.1Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Vitória would usually take 2.0 points and Cruzeiro 0.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Cruzeiro.

Vitória −2.0 pts vs chancesCruzeiro +2.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Vitória vs Cruzeiro stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Vitória had clearly more shots on target

Vitória

Cruzeiro

8

Shots on target

5

2

Big chances

1

8

Corners

2

0

Yellow cards

3

43%

Possession

57%

The match between Vitória and Cruzeiro ended 1-3. Our AI model predicted a Vitória win at 42% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Both Teams To Score — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético Mineiro – Cruzeiro prediction & betting tips (Oct 29, 2026).

Vitória vs Cruzeiro — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vitória to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Cruzeiro to win.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 31%

Our track record

In 1,070 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,527 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 2,864 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 74%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 4,595 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 4,295 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.1% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Vitória Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vitória 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,490 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Cruzeiro Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cruzeiro 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,317 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Vitória vs Cruzeiro 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Vitória vs Cruzeiro. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
VitóriaVitória1
CruzeiroCruzeiro3

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

142%
X26%
232%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT64%36%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Vitória26%74%60%40%
Cruzeiro33%67%67%33%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Vitória84%16%95%5%
Cruzeiro88%12%96%4%

1st Half

131%
X46%
223%

1st Score

152%
X7%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

21%

X-X

18%

X-1

16%

2-2

16%

X-2

13%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.7%

1-0

10.5%

2-1

9.7%

0-1

8.4%

1-2

7.8%

0-0

7.2%

2-0

6.8%

2-2

5.3%

0-2

5.0%

3-1

3.8%

3-0

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético Mineiro – Cruzeiro prediction & betting tips (Oct 29, 2026).

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