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Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 29)

Fair result

Botafogo

1–2

Vasco da Gama

1.0Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Botafogo would usually take 0.8 points and Vasco da Gama 2.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Vasco da Gama.

Botafogo −0.8 pts vs chancesVasco da Gama +1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Vasco da Gama had more than twice the shots on target

Botafogo

Vasco da Gama

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

46%

Possession

54%

The match between Botafogo and Vasco da Gama ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Botafogo win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Remo – Botafogo prediction & betting tips (Oct 29, 2026).

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Botafogo to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Vasco da Gama to win.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 31%

Our track record

In 380 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.8% than to our 45–50%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 6,506 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 76%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,682 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 49%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 4,251 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Botafogo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Botafogo 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Vasco da Gama Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vasco da Gama 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Vasco da Gama 2+ goals.

Our model 73%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Botafogo1

Vasco da Gama2

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Botafogo1

Vasco da Gama2

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

146%

X27%

227%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%	66%	34%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	59%	41%	83%	17%	94%	6%
	38%	62%	73%	27%	91%	9%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	59%	41%
	38%	62%	73%	27%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	94%	6%
	91%	9%	98%	2%

1st Half

130%

X48%

222%

1st Score

153%

X9%

238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

X-X

18%

X-1

17%

2-2

14%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.5%

1-0

12.1%

2-1

9.5%

0-0

8.7%

2-0

8.2%

0-1

8.1%

1-2

6.7%

2-2

4.9%

0-2

4.1%

3-1

4.0%

3-0

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama — Recent Form

Vasco da Gama have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 15th in the table. Botafogo have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 11th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Vasco da Gama

Botafogo

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Vasco da Gama

2/5

Botafogo

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Vasco da Gama

4/5

Botafogo

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Vasco da Gama

1/5

Botafogo

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Vasco da Gama

4/5

Botafogo

4/5

First Half Result

Vasco da Gama

2/5

Botafogo

3/5

Correct Score

Vasco da Gama

0/5

Botafogo

2/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Remo – Botafogo prediction & betting tips (Oct 29, 2026).